Opinion: Trump is stoking fears about D.C.'s crime but the city is safer than it's been in decades.

Since retaking office, President Donald Trump has floated an executive order cracking down on crime in D.C., told reporters the federal government “should take over” the city due to crime, and called on Mayor Muriel Bowser to clear homeless encampments to increase safety. In early February, two Congressmen introduced a bill to strip D.C. of its local governance entirely. The reason? Also crime.

While calls for reactionary policies in response to violence are increasing under this administration, they’re not new in the District. In 2023, Congress blocked the modernization of D.C.’s criminal code and then, a few months later, attempted to block common-sense policing reform. Many local officials have joined the chorus in recent years, fueling fears of rising crime and using it to justify the urgent adoption of regressive policies and practices whose efficacy have long been refuted by research, including enforcing a youth curfew, increasing pretrial detention, and enacting longer prison sentences.

As D.C. faces the threat of immediate, devastating budget cuts unless the House takes decisive action this month and the potential for a $1 billion revenue shortfall over the next few years due largely to federal layoffs, it is critical that we address the perception that the city’s crime is spiraling out of control – because the data tells a different story.

The Perception vs. Reality Gap

D.C. is the safest that it has been in decades despite the tragic incidents and micro-level trends that arose during the pandemic. Violent crime in the District hit a multigenerational low in 2024. Indeed, except for a six-month period in 2023 where violent crime spiked, the city has seen a steady decline since the 1990s.

So why do we feel less secure, even as we become safer? There are likely a few reasons.  

First, while violent crime has fallen overall, specific small categories of particularly salient violent crime – like homicides and carjackings, which together made up less than 8% of all violent crime in 2019 – increased significantly in the wake of the pandemic. Second, these microtrends and individual tragedies have been amplified by media, social media, and neighborhood apps. This phenomenon was particularly intense in the initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic, when we were living with a heightened amount of daily uncertainty and fear. 

This disconnect isn’t unique to D.C. nor to this moment in time. National polling data has consistently shown that Americans often believe crime is rising, even when it is declining. 

Unfortunately, when crime is perceived to be increasing, policymakers rush to implement punitive measures. While it is critical we recognize the pain caused by violent crime, meaningfully support victims, and act urgently to reduce harm, we must also be precise in defining the problem and grounded in research when developing solutions. For instance, longer sentences do little to deter crime and the pretrial detention of youth makes it more likely that a young person will not finish high school and will end up reoffending. Too often, the drive to feel secure leads us to adopt reactive approaches that actually make us less safe.   

Moving Beyond Reactionary Policies

True safety requires proactive interventions that prevent harm from happening in the first place, rather than punishment after the fact. It requires addressing root causes, including homelessness, child abuse and neglect, poverty, and other forms of deprivation and trauma. If we want crime to continue declining, we must pursue community-centered solutions with the same zeal shown for reactive policies. 

D.C. residents understand and support a more proactive approach. Seventy percent believe that prevention, not punishment, is the best way to promote safety and say that they prefer investing in things like affordable housing and mental health services over jails and prisons, according to a 2024 survey. An even larger majority in the same survey believe it’s important to reduce the number of incarcerated residents. 

Prevention strategies must include better supporting families, including by expanding direct cash assistance programs to help meet basic needs. It should also include support programs that improve parenting skills and reduce long-term risk factors for crime, such as home visiting programs, which help expectant and new parents promote the healthy development of their children.

Prevention also must entail helping young people heal from trauma and build the skills necessary to successfully transition to adulthood, including grief counseling, cognitive behavioral therapy, mentorship, and job opportunities that give young people alternatives to violence and help them thrive. 

Violence interruption programs, which deploy trained community members to de-escalate conflicts before they turn deadly, are also key to preventing gun violence. But to maximize their impact in D.C., we must ensure they have the necessary infrastructure, scale, and support to be sustainable. This means not only improving wages, benefits, and training but also ensuring they can actually connect their clients to services, like housing and employment, when they want to turn away from violence.

Finally, lasting safety requires empowering local voices and leadership, particularly those most impacted by violence. This means continuing to resist federal intrusions that aim to politicize false perceptions of crime while centering community solutions that emerge from Wards 5, 7, and 8. Examples include those listed in the Black Swan Academy’s Black Youth Agendas, such as increasing access to behavioral health services, and those developed by organizations like the TRIGGER Project and the TraRon Center, which were founded by native Washingtonians and use a public health lens to identify and address the root causes of gun violence.  

These proactive investments won’t just prevent crime. They will improve overall community well-being, leading to a thriving, prosperous city for everyone.

The Time to Invest in Sustainable Safety is Now

D.C. is at a critical juncture. Last week, despite their purported concerns over public safety in the District, members of Congress passed a continuing resolution that needlessly blocks the city from spending $1.1 billion of its own revenue on schools, human services, and police. Unless the House of Representatives adopts the fix passed by the Senate as soon as it returns from recess, this federal action will undoubtedly immediately make it more difficult to effectively prevent and react to crime. 

Even without these cuts, D.C.’s upcoming revenue projections are $1 billion lower than previously expected, risking serious disinvestment in our most under-resourced residents and communities in this year’s budget. The D.C. Council and the Mayor must invest in genuine violence prevention in a way that matches or exceeds the scale of commitments made in revitalizing downtown and keeping or attracting professional sports teams. Now is the time to make significant, direct investments in the youth and families of the District, particularly those most historically under-resourced. We will be safer and stronger for it.